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Government releases macroeconomic assumptions for 2009 budget

Government releases macroeconomic assumptions for 2009 budget

18 December 2008

Yesterday Ukrainian government released macroeconomic forecasts for the next year’s state budget. The Cabinet projects GDP growth of 0.4% yoy, CPI of 9.5% yoy and PPI of 12% yoy in 2009. The Minister of Economy, Bohdan Danylyshin justifies such optimistic forecasts by expectations of global recovery in 2009, in particular, improvement of commodity markets. Andrii Parkhomenko: We contend that the government’s GDP forecast is unreasonably optimistic. We forecast GDP to fall 2.0% next year. According to the consensus forecast conducted by a Ukraine-based Institute for Economic Research, 70.5% of experts anticipate GDP to decline 1-6% in 2009. Inflation forecast also looks underestimated, given upcoming hike for natural gas and utilities prices.

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