Industrial Output Shows Signs Of Slowing In October

Industrial output growth in October came to 3.8% yoy up from 3.1% a year ago. Additionally, industrial output for 10M was up 5.3% yoy, down slightly from 5.5% yoy in 9M. Alexander Viktorov: Industrial output growth was again supported by metallurgy (+7.0% yoy) machine building (6.0% yoy) and food processing (11.9% yoy). In contrast, an unusually severe decline in coke and oil product production (-29.7% yoy, three of the country’s six refineries were idle), and the slowdown in chemical production (2.3% yoy) pulled down overall industrial output. These stronger than expected declines have led us to lower our industrial output forecast from 6.5% to 5.6% yoy.