Confusion Reigns after Moroz Election.

Last night’s election of Socialist leader Olexander Moroz as speaker of parliament with support from the Regions party has split the Orange coalition and set back negotiations on forming a government practically to square one. The three Orange parties are planning separate meetings of their factions today which are expected to result in a formal decision by at least one member to quit the coalition. Moroz and Regions leaders have called on Our Ukraine to join them in a new coalition, but Our Ukraine leaders say they now rule out any coalition with the Socialists. Regions leaders have also said they could alternatively form a coalition with the Socialists and Communists. David Zhvania, an Our Ukraine MP, has said Our Ukraine might consider forming a coalition with Regions which would remove Moroz as speaker. President Yushchenko, who has been conspicuously silent, is expected to appear on television later today. Yulia Tymoshenko has called on him to dissolve parliament and call new elections. Tom Warner: Yushchenko and Our Ukraine have been humiliated and out-maneuvered, but they still hold the deciding votes on the composition of the new government. The decision on whether or not to dissolve parliament is entirely up to Yushchenko – the constitution allows him to do so if no government is formed by July 24, and no coalition would be able to meet that deadline without his support. We doubt Yushchenko would accept a Regions-Socialists-Communist government. We see three main scenarios, all about equally likely: a revival of the Orange coalition, a coalition of Regions plus part of Our Ukraine, and new elections. It is now not unlikely that talks on forming a new government could stretch into autumn.