Ukraine's 1Q08 export of goods +28.5% yoy, imports est. +39.2% yoy

The State Statistics Committee reported yesterday that Ukraine’s merchandise exports rose 28.5% yoy to USD 13.8 bln in 1Q08. The main drivers were vehicles (+50.3% yoy), machine equipment (+42.3% yoy), ferrous metals (+31.2 yoy), and food oils (+74.2% yoy). Polina Khomenko: The Statistics Committee is still excluding gas imports numbers as gas supplies from Russia have been undocumented since the beginning of the year. We estimate that in 1Q08 total merchandise imports were USD 18.0 bln, resulting in a USD 4.2 bln foreign trade deficit in goods. We forecast a merchandise trade deficit of USD 15.3 bln in 2008. At the same time, according to the statistics committee, the foreign trade balance in services reached positive USD 1.2 bln (+37.6% yoy) in 1Q08. Our projection is for a negative USD 11.3 bln trade balance in services by yearend.