Ukraine's Electricity Exports Decrease 40% yoy in 4M08

Ukraine cut electricity exports by 39.7% yoy to 2,328.8 bln kW in January-April 2008.

—————————————
Country, mln kW    4M07     4M08  Chg,%
—————————————
Hungary                1,110.8  1,152.5    3.8
Russia                    894.5      0.0        0.0
Moldova                 867.1    930.3       7.3
Belarus                  488.6      0.0         0.0
Poland                   310.5     53.7      -82.7
Romania                 142.2     44.9     -68.4
Slovakia                   51.3    147.4     187.3   
—————————————
Total                    3,865.0  2,328.8  -39.7

Source: Ukraine’s Ministry of Fuel and Energy

Alexander Paraschiy: Electricity exports to CIS counties has followed a trend in recent months (down 59% yoy) – supplies of electricity to Belarus and Russia stopped in mid-2007, and there is low chance of resumption. At the moment, Ukraine is negotiating with Lithuania to export electricity, but prospects for this depend on power transit through Belarus. In terms of exports to UCTE countries, a positive trend emerged: as we expected, Ukraine has resumed electricity exports to Poland in mid-April (exports stopped in fall 2007 as the parties were unable to agree upon prices). Over 4M08, Ukraine reduced exports to UCTE counties by 13% yoy (a slight increase compared to the 14% yoy decline in 1Q08). As before, we forecast a 15% yoy drop in electricity exports for FY08.