Ukraine Cuts Electricity Export 40% yoy in 1Q08

Ukraine decreased electricity export by 40% yoy to 1.734 bln kW in 1Q08, according to the Ministry of Fuel and Energy.
———————————-
Country, mln kW  3M07   3M08  Chg,%
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Hungary            854.1 931.3    9.0
Russia              831.7   0.0      0.0
Moldova           611.7   682.6   11.6
Belarus            264.0   0.0      0.0
Poland             251.9   0.0      0.0
Romania          69.2    44.7   35.4
Slovakia           47.1    75.2   59.7    
———————————-
Total                 2930  1734    -40

Alexander Paraschiy: Key reason of export decrease is that Russia, Belarus and Poland stopped buying Ukrainian electricity since fall 2008: Ukrainian exporter Ukrinterenergo did not agree on price of export with representatives of these countries. Export to UCTE countries (from power plants of Zakhidenergo (ZAEN: HOLD)) dropped 14% yoy, while export to CIS countries (from the energy system of Ukraine) dropped 60% yoy. According to CEO of Zakhidenergo, export to Poland will resume in mid-April 2008. Export to Russia is unlikely to be resumed: the country doesn’t currently face energy deficit problem like two years ago. Currently Belarus compensates its energy deficit by import from Russia, but with increase of capacity demand in fall-winter 2008, it can resume import from Ukraine. We forecast a decrease of Ukrainian export 15% yoy for FY08, with export to UCTE countries being unchanged.