Week of talks with Russia begin with low expectations

American and Russian diplomats held an informal dinner
in Geneva on Jan. 9 to begin a week of negotiations regarding security in
Europe and in particular, Ukraine. The dinner comes after a weekend of warnings
and lowering of expectations given by both sides in public.

The U.S. described sanctions that would be imposed
“within hours” of a Russian military incursion into Ukraine, nytimes.com
reported on Jan. 8. These sanctions would include stopping major Russian banks’
access to debt markets, prohibitions against the sale of equipment containing
U.S.-developed or manufactured technology, and arming Ukrainian insurgents.

Both U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, who is leading the Russian
negotiations, stated that the talks this week could fail. Blinken warned that
Russia would use the failure to get their way to justify in its eyes a military
invasion or other forms of attack. However, Ryabkov, who dined with U.S. Deputy
Secretary of State Wendy Sherman, who is leading the American side, and their
respective teams, said after the dinner that the talks, “cannot be easy. They
will be business-like. I think we won’t waste our time tomorrow,” abcnews.com
reports.

James Hydzik: The U.S.
detailing the sanctions that would be levied promptly leaves out some important
details, such as whether Russia would be barred from using the SWIFT system for
international payments. Also, while the call for harsh sanctions in case the
area currently under Kyiv’s control is clear, what would be done if tanks on
the other side of the line of contact started flying the Russian flag is not.
What would happen if a major cyber attack were to hit Ukraine or its Gas
Transit System were to fall victim to sabotage is also unclear.

On a related note. Russia’s intentions regarding
Ukraine are muddled currently by the attention diverted to events in
Kazakhstan. The actual number of troops sent to central Asia would not change
events in Ukraine much, but the logistics and command requirements associated
with it are a drain. However, it is unclear whether Russia’s military forces
being sent to Kazakhstan will affect the negotiations, and if so, how.