Ukraine budget revenue 11% behind plan in December

Ukraine’s state budget revenue provisionally rose 6.8%
yoy to UAH 140 bln in December, underperforming the plan by 11.4%, the State
Treasury reported on Jan. 4. Net tax revenue increased 43.0% yoy to UAH 50 bln
(18.9% below the plan) amid 36.3% yoy growth in gross tax revenue and a 20.1%
yoy increase in VAT reimbursement. Customs revenue advanced 39.5% yoy to UAH 45
bln (2.6% below the plan).

In 2021, state budget revenue surged 20.7% yoy to UAH
1,299 bln, which is 1.8% above the plan. Net tax revenue advanced 21.1% yoy to
UAH 614 bln (3.1% above the plan) amid a 19.0% yoy jump in gross tax revenue
and an 11.6% yoy increase in VAT reimbursement. Customs revenue surged 37.8%
yoy to UAH 409 bln (3.2% above the plan).

Local budgets’ fiscal revenue improved 20.5% yoy to
UAH 359 bln in 2021, which is 6.6% above the plan. Social payments (pensions
and other social fund contributions paid by employers) advanced 18.6% yoy to
UAH 349 bln.

Evgeniya Akhtyrko: The underperformance of budget revenue against the plan in December was
the result of somewhat unrealistic collection targets for the month, as the
revenue growth rate in the last month of the year was comparable with those in
previous months. However the overperformance of budget collections in 2021
doesn’t look very impressive, as the expected inflation in 2021 at about 10%
YTD exceeded inflation of 7.3% YTD assumed in the 2021 budget.