Ukraine retail trade increases 5.8% in November

Ukrainian retail sales increased 5.8% yoy (and 0.1%
m/m) in November, accelerating from 5.6% yoy growth in the prior month,
Ukraine’s State Statistics Service reported on Dec. 20. In 11M21, retail
increased 11.2% yoy (vs. 7.2% yoy in 11M20).

The highest growth of retail sales in 11M21 occurred
in Chernivtsi (27.6% yoy), Ternopil (24.0% yoy) and Zakarpattia (20.3% yoy)
regions. The slowest growth rates were in Kharkiv (1.7% yoy),
Ukraine-controlled Luhansk (6.2% yoy) region and Volyn (6.4% yoy) regions.

Evgeniya Akhtyrko: It looks
like the era of double-digit retail growth is ending, and high inflation is not
the only driver. The gap between the consumption patterns of Ukrainians and
those in neighboring Central European countries has narrowed, leaving less room
for the fast pick up of retail.

We expect retail sales growth will slow to 5-6% yoy
in 2022 from an anticipated 11% yoy in 2021.