Ukraine goods trade deficit reaches USD 0.3 bln in October

Ukraine’s goods trade deficit amounted to USD 313 mln
in October declining from a deficit of USD 357 mln in September, the State
Statistics Service announced in a preliminary report on Dec. 15. The seasonally
adjusted goods deficit increased to USD 142 mln (vs. a deficit of USD 122 mln
in September) amid a 1.0% m/m decline of adjusted exports and a 0.6% m/m
decline in adjusted imports.

Goods exports increased 36% yoy in October to USD 6.26
bln (vs. a 53% yoy increase in September). The accelerated growth was mostly
driven by exports of crop products (57% yoy) and ferrous metals (82% yoy).

Goods imports increased 32% yoy to USD 6.57 bln in
October (vs. 41% yoy growth in September). The major contributors to the
accelerated growth included energy products (2.2x year-on-year) and chemicals
(up 41%).

In 10M21, the goods trade deficit amounted to USD 2.6
bln (vs. a deficit of USD 3.5 bln in 10M20); goods exports increased 37.5 yoy
and imports jumped 32.1% yoy.

Evgeniya Akhtyrko: In October,
the deficit of Ukraine’s trade in goods didn’t change significantly as the
slower growth of exports went along the slower growth of imports. Goods exports
still benefited from incredibly high receipts from metals exports while
advancing crop exports helped to compensate for the completion of the boom in
iron ore exports. The growth of imports is maintained by the ongoing increase
of energy prices.

We are likely to observe a traditional year-end
enlargement of the goods trade deficit in November-December. The goods trade
deficit will land around USD 4.0 bln in 2021 (vs. a deficit of USD 5.1 bln in
2020).