Belarusian president Aleksander Lukashenko accused the
Ukrainian government of hosting foreign troops on Sept. 27. Lukashenko was
speaking at a meeting with Belarusian security and defense heads,
president.gov.by announced.
He specified that the Ukrainian government was “dragging
NATO troops there to Ukraine” and that, “under the guise of training centers,
they’re actually creating bases. The United States is creating bases in
Ukraine.”
He stated that he had spoken with Russian president
Vladimir Putin about the developments and that they “agreed that some action
should be taken there.” Otherwise, he claimed, the situation would become
intolerable, and even missiles “of the appropriate range” would be deployed
against Belarus and Russia.
James Hydzik: Lukashenko should be taken at his word. The important questions
regarding a response are when and how, as asymmetric warfare does not require
an eye for an eye. Sanctions against high ranking foreigners would not be in
the cards and if military conflict a thousand kilometers away is not enough to
keep troops from coming to the Ukrainian training ground near the Polish
border, then pushing from Donbas won’t be much of a deterrence. Moreover,
Russia’s and Belarus’s joint autumn military exercises finished recently, so
the threat of invasion under the cover of ongoing troop movements is low.
Missiles, migrants, and malicious emails all could be sent with the intent of
disrupting operations near the training centers. Beyond that, these are open
questions.