Ukrainian retail sales increased 14.3% yoy in 5M21
accelerating from 14.0% yoy growth in 4M21, Ukraine’s State Statistics Service
reported on June 22. In May, real retail sales increased 5.2% m/m and 22.7%
yoy.
The highest growth occurred in Chernivtsi (30.7% yoy),
Ternopil (30.1% yoy) and Zakarpattia (24.5% yoy) regions. The slowest growth
rates were in Kharkiv (2.1% yoy), Kirovohrad (10.3% yoy) and Ukraine-controlled
Donetsk (10.6% yoy) regions.
Evgeniya Akhtyrko: The retail
growth continues to impress. The low comparative base of May 2020 (3.1% yoy
decline) was not the major factor behind the remarkable result. The fast growth
of wages and constrained alternative consumption (i.e. travelling) prompted the
retail boom.
We expect consumer demand to stay strong in 2021,
allowing retail sales to accelerate to 10% yoy (vs. 8.4% yoy growth in 2020).