Majority of Ukrainians expect worsening economy in 2021

About 71% of Ukrainians believe the nation’s affairs are
going in the wrong direction, while 18% believe they are in the right
direction, according to a poll released on Dec. 23 by the Rating Sociological
Group. About 63% believe an economic crisis could be possible in the new year
owing to government incompetence, compared to 23% attributing it to the
coronavirus and only 9% to the war in Donbas. Only 16% believe the economic
situation will improve in the next six months, compared to 47% who believe it
will worsen.

Meanwhile, about 70% of Ukrainians believe Ukraine’s
economic conditions worsened in the last six months, while 7% have seen
improvement. About 56% said the financial situation of their family has
worsened, compared to 7% who have had improvement.

About 65% of Ukrainians are dissatisfied with the work
of President Zelensky, compared to 32% who are satisfied, according to the
poll. However, only about 39% of the public supports early presidential
elections, compared to 58% that is opposed.

On the other hand, about 60% of the public believes the
cabinet should be dismissed, compared to 35% opposed. Only 16% of the public is
satisfied with the work of Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal, compared to 65% that
is dissatisfied.

About 58% of the public supports early parliamentary
elections, compared to 39% opposed. About 30% is satisfied with the work of
Parliamentary Speaker Razumkov, compared to 51% that is dissatisfied. The poll
was conducted between Dec. 16 and 20 among 2,000 respondents.

Zenon Zawada: These poll
results confirm much of what has already been known. We believe the public
opposes early presidential elections not because Zelensky is so popular, but it
doesn’t want political destabilization that would invite further Russian
aggression. At the same time, it can’t be denied that Zelensky is continuing to
enjoy the benefits of his celebrity luster, with the public assigning blame for
the nation’s problems on Prime Minister Shmyhal and Andriy Yermak, the
President’s Office head.

We believe Zelensky will dismiss the cabinet only
when his ratings start to decline, so as to serve as a release valve of public
discontent. We don’t see a high likelihood for this in 2021. We also don’t see
a high likelihood of parliament being dismissed, since the pro-presidential
People’s Servant party would lose many seats, including its majority.