Railway product prices drop 4% m/m in September for Ukraine exports

Ukraine export prices for railway products sold mostly
by Ukraine’s largest producer Interpipe (INTHOL) were USD 1,339/t in September,
down 4% m/m and 34% less yoy, according to our analysis of State Statistics
data released on Nov. 19.

The September prices are 37% below their December peak
and 14% below their 2Q20 average level, according to Concorde Capital
calculations. We estimate the average 3Q20 prices are 12% below their 2Q20
average.

Dmytro Khoroshun: The 3Q20 EBITDA (before reallocation from its steel segment) of
Interpipe’s railway product segment might drop to about USD 29 mln, or 30% less
qoq. This preliminary estimate reflects the estimated 12% qoq drop in prices
and an 8% qoq drop in Interpipe’s sales
volume in 3Q20.