New plan to resolve war in Donbas to be discussed this week

Several meetings are scheduled this week to discuss a
new plan for resolving the war in Donbas. The Ukrainian delegation initiated
this process last week when it submitted its draft, the Plan for Common Steps,
to the OSCE. Now Ukraine is waiting for the OSCE to produce “a single document
taking into account the positions of all sides,” which will be discussed at the
next meeting of the Trilateral Contact Group in a Nov. 10 videoconference,
Leonid Kravchuk, the head of the Ukrainian delegation, said in an interview
with the tass.ru news site published on Nov. 8.

“There is the task of preparing an all-encompassing
document – taking into account the interests of all sides, including the select
districts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions – which opens the door to peace
and renewing life on these territories,” Kravchuk said in the interview. A
second videoconference is scheduled for Nov. 13 among Normandy Format advisers,
the president’s website reported on Nov. 7.

The Minsk Accords to resolve the war in Donbas need to
be revised, Kravchuk also said in the interview. In particular, Ukrainian
control of the Russian border in the occupied territories of Donbas needs to be
established before any political commitments are undertaken, he said, referring
to holding local elections. This voting could occur under a system of
single-mandate districts, rather than a proportional distribution of seats
based on parties, he said.

An economic development strategy for occupied Donbas
will be submitted for parliamentary review in the spring with its accompanying
acts to provide for its implementation, said Oleksiy Reznikov, the deputy of
head of the Ukrainian trilateral delegation, as reported by his press service
on Nov. 7. The strategy is based on three steps – creating the conditions for
raising domestic and foreign investment, financing the development from the
state budget and securing financing from international donors and
organizations, he said.

A 20-year-old soldier from the Lviv region, Oleh
Svynaryk, died in battle in the Luhansk region on the early morning of Nov. 7,
the Lviv regional administration reported that day. The Joint Operation Forces
didn’t mention Svynaryk’s death, or any casualties, in its evening update on
Nov. 7, the pravda.com.ua news site reported.

Zenon Zawada: As we mentioned last week, it’s hard
to see any incentive for Russia to agree to a peace plan. Its ultimate goal
with its hybrid war on Ukrainian statehood is to prevent Ukraine’s integration
into the EU and NATO. So extending the war serves to accomplish that. It was
previously thought that Russia couldn’t afford a protracted war in Donbas,
under the weight of Western sanctions, and a diplomatic mechanism was necessary
to help Russian President Putin save face to withdraw from Donbas. But Putin
has proven that he could wage the war for six years and counting.

The proposal for economic development zones are partly
intended for the public in occupied Donbas to question its loyalty to Russia
and its proxies, who are largely corrupt and parasitically feeding off what’s
left of the region’s industry. But their level of distrust in the Ukrainian
government, and the West, has been decimated. Only after investments are made
can sentiments possibly shift.