Ukraine GDP drop slows to 6.2% in 7M20, ministry estimates

Ukraine’s real GDP dropped 6.2% yoy in 7M20, improving
from a 6.5% yoy decline in 1H20, according
to estimates published on Sept. 11 by the Ministry of Economic Development. The
estimate is based on the General Production Index (GPI), which takes into
account manufacturing results during the period.

In 7M20, GPI dropped 7.3% yoy, improving from a 7.7%
yoy decline in 1H20, the ministry estimated. In July, the decline slowed down
in some sectors of industrial production, transportation, trade and
agriculture. In addition, the index of business expectations improved.

Evgeniya Akhtyrko: We are
likely to see the a further slowdown in the pace of economic decline through
the year end. In particular, the improvement will be promoted by relatively
high consumer demand. In addition, the increased government spending on road
construction might result in a faster revival of the construction sector.

If the government doesn’t resort to strict
nationwide quarantine restrictions amid the recent records in COVID-19
infections, Ukraine GDP might conclude the year at around a 5% yoy drop (vs.
3.2% yoy growth in 2019).