Zelensky enjoys ratings bump at end of August

Ukrainian President Zelensky enjoyed a bump in his
poll ratings at the end of August, according to a poll released on Sept. 9 by
the Rating Sociological Group. Public trust in Zelensky rose to 44% from 38% at
the end of July, while distrust in Zelensky dropped to 51% from 55% in the same
period. Zelensky’s trust rating far outranks his two predecessors at the start
of the 16th month of their presidencies: Petro Poroshenko had only 25% of the
public’s trust, while Viktor Yanukovych had 26%. The poll was conducted among
10,000 respondents between Aug. 29 and Sept. 3.

The People’s Servant party, launched by Zelensky, had
25.7% of support among decided voters at the end of August, compared to 29.3%
at the end of June, according to the same poll. The Putinist party Opposition
Platform For Life had 16.7% support, compared to 15.3% at the end of June.
Former President Poroshenko’s European Solidarity had 15.6% support, compared
to 13.6% at the end of June. The anti-IMF Fatherland party had 9.4% support,
compared to 10.7%. Another populist force, Liashko’s Radical Party, had 6.0%,
compared to 3.5% at the end of June.

Zenon Zawada: We
attribute Zelensky’s end of August ratings bump to the successful Donbas ceasefire
launched on July 27, but even more so his policy of not getting directly
involved in the Belarusian elections conflict. Given the “EuroMaidan/Donbas”
fatigue held by the majority of Ukrainians, they appreciated Zelensky’s
comments of not wanting Ukraine’s trouble with Russia being repeated in
Belarus. Moreover, Lukashenko is the most popular foreign politician among
Ukrainians, according to two polls conducted in 2019.

We are certain Zelensky’s bump is not related to
anything domestic, which is evidenced by the ongoing fall in his party’s
ratings (with Russian-oriented supporters migrating to the Opposition Platform,
and pro-Western voters flowing to Poroshenko’s party.) Meanwhile, Liashko
(aligned with magnate Akhmetov) is chipping away at the support for Fatherland,
led by his political mentor, former PM Yulia Tymoshenko (who is aligned with
magnate Kolomoisky).