Kozak proposes ending Donbas peace talks between top advisers

Dmitry Kozak, the lead negotiator for Russia to resolve
the war in Donbas, has proposed ending the peace talks at the level of top
advisers, the pravda.com.ua news site reported on July 30, citing an anonymous
source. Kozak sent a letter to the adviser to German Chancellor Angela Merkel,
dispatching copies to his French and Ukrainian counterparts as well, the source
said. Kozak stated the talks between advisers have become meaningless and
proposed that everyone withdraw. Kozak is a deputy head in the Russian
presidential administration.

As his response to Kozak’s proposal, Andriy Yermak,
the lead negotiator for Ukraine in the peace talks, told the pravda.com.ua news
site that Ukraine has recently taken a more proactive and strict position,
causing the talks to be “qualitatively reformatted.” He said the temperature of
the talks rises and falls. “That’s normal. That’s diplomacy. That’s the
psychology of negotiations. It’s necessary to understand this and calmly regard
similar letters and their interpretation,” he said.

“It’s necessary to clearly understand the motivation
of all the sides, and to understand the potential risks of any initiative and
that conditions are constantly changing,” said Yermak, who is the head of the
President’s Office. “It’s also necessary to understand that the negotiations process
has its own peculiarities. It’s especially complicated currently, now that
Ukraine has taken a proactive position. Mr. Kozak’s letter, in my view, is more
likely a subtle diplomatic game, when one of the sides of the negotiations
wants to strengthen its position and retake the initiative. Yet it’s understood
that there’s no sense in talking about halting the negotiations.”

The ceasefire in Donbas declared on July 27 has
reached its fourth successful day, Yermak said. “This is a direct result of the
work of the very Trilateral Contact Group in Minsk and the Normandy Format.
This affirms the remarkable effectiveness of the talks, regardless of all the
complications that arise in the process,” he said.

Only two ceasefire violations by the Russian-backed
fighters were reported on July 30, both in the Luhansk region, according to the
Joint Forces Operation press service. A provocation with rifle fire was
attempted near the village of Orikhove, while in the same region a grenade
launcher was fired near the village of Novotoshkivske. The shots were off
target and not responded to, the press service said.

Zenon Zawada: The more
proactive and strict position that Yermak is referring to is based on the new coordinating mechanisms
that were implemented on July 27 (also referred to as “additional measures”).
These include retaliatory fire being reserved only for top commanders, and only
after their unsuccessful attempts to resolve ceasefire violations using the
coordinating mechanism (administered by the Joint Centre for Control and
Coordination). In addition, all military orders must be made public by
commanders, a measure that ensures they conform with the agreements in place
and reflect true actions on the field.

Besides achieving a “full and all-encompassing
ceasefire,” the implementation of these mechanisms was intended to restrict the
Russian-backed forces on the battlefield. So far, they have shown a positive
effect, as demonstrated by the reduced attacks, as well as the apparent
irritation of Dmitry Kozak. We agree with Yermak that with his threat, Kozak is
trying to recover some upperhand in the talks and retake initiative.

Another positive effect with this latest ceasefire
plan is that it improves the Zelensky administration’s image in the view of
Western leaders as genuinely doing everything possible for a ceasefire. We continue to expect reduced fire in
the short term
(three-six months), but a gradual reversion to more intense daily fire because
of Russia’s disinterest in a full ceasefire, as the agreement calls for. The
military aggression in Donbas has been a key lever to pressure Ukraine
politically, economically and psychologically. Losing this lever puts Russia at
a disadvantage, which it won’t allow for.