Ukraine real GDP drops 1.5% in 1Q20

Ukraine’s 1Q20 real GDP fell 1.5% yoy, or 0.8% qoq
seasonally adjusted, after growing 1.5% yoy (0.0% qoq) in 4Q19, according to
preliminary estimates by the State Statistics Service released on May 15.

Evgeniya Akhtyrko:  The
State Statistics estimate shows an even deeper recession in 1Q20 than the recent estimate by the Ministry
of Economic Development.

We expect the economic downfall to have deepened
further in 2Q20 as this quarter fully absorbed all the negatives related to the
quarantine measures, both in Ukraine and its trading partners. Our forecast is
for Ukraine’s GDP to drop 4.5% yoy in 2020 (vs. 3.2% yoy growth in 2019).