Agriculture Ministry upgrades grain harvest forecast to 47 mln mt

The Ministry of Agricultural Policy and Food increased its forecast for this year’s total grain harvest by 2 mln mt to 47 mln mt, Minister Mykola Prysyazhnyuk said yesterday at a press conference. According to the Ministry, 23 mln mt of the 47 mln mt could be exported this year. As of July 18, 15.6 mln mt of grains were harvested with an average yield of 2.87 mt per ha, up 18% y-o-y. As of that same day, the yield on barley was up 15% y-o-y, on wheat up 16% y-o-y, and on rapeseed down 5% y-o-y. Yegor Samusenko: The grain harvest growth is primarily due to low base yields for all grains and relatively normal yields for oilseeds last year. Early season domestic prices for wheat are USD 170-175 per mt (vs. USD 145-150 a year ago), according to APK-Inform. As result of introduced grain export duties, the price spread between Ukrainian domestic prices and EU Liffe prices has increased from USD 50 year ago to USD 90 as of July 15. We still view current price levels supportive for Ukrainian farmers and expect most of them to show above 50% revenue growth this year.