6 July 2010
Agroton (FSE: A2TA GR) started harvesting its 134 ths ha of planted farmland in Luhansk and Kharkiv regions. The company forecasts a harvest of 328.3 ths mt of crops or +38.7% above last year’s result. The major collection increase is expected in corn, rape and barley, estimated by the management at 69 ths mt (+288% yoy), 8.2 ths mt (+525% yoy) and 5.5 ths mt (+135% yoy) respectively. Ruslan Patlavskyy: Based on our estimates, management forecasts imply a substantial increase in crop yields (see table below), in particular for corn by 109% yoy to 6.1 mt/ha vs. 4.0 mt/ha average in Ukraine in 2009. This, as well as a 86% yoy increase in area sowed with corn to 11.4 ths ha should boost the share of corn in the new harvest by 13 pp yoy to 20.5%, which, in our view, drives the total planned harvest volume by 6% above our forecast of 308.9 ths mt.
Harvest,mt 2009/10E 2008/09 Chg yoy,%
—————————————
Sunflower 106,392 76,491 39.1%
Wheat 142,254 136,143 4.5%
Corn 68,946 17,769 288.0%
Rapeseed 8,200 1,313 524.5%
Barley 5,523 2,354 134.6%
Sorghum 2,451 – n.a.
Rye 2,191 2,507 -12.6%
Oats 433 90 381.1%
Total 336,390 236,667 42.1%
—————————————
Sown area,ha 2009/10E 2008/09 Chg yoy,%
———————————————
Sunflower 54,857 47,619 15.2%
Winter wheat 43,397 50,228 -13.6%
Corn 11,346 6,106 85.8%
Winter rapeseed 6,995 1,126 521.2%
Winter barley 2,137 835 155.9%
Sorghum 1,763 – n.a.
Winter rye 626 1,358 -53.9%
Oats 149 100 49.0%
Feed crops (corn) 3,791 12,302 -69.2%
Fallow 9,014 14,225 -36.6%
———————————————
Total 134,075 133,899 0.1%
Yields,mt/ha 2009/10E 2008/09 Chg yoy,%
———————————————
Sunflower 1.94 1.61 20.7%
Winter wheat 3.28 2.71 20.9%
Corn 6.08 2.91 108.8%
Winter rapeseed 1.17 1.17 0.5%
Winter barley 2.58 2.82 -8.3%
Sorghum 1.39 – n.a.
Winter rye 3.50 1.85 89.6%
Oats 2.91 0.90 222.9%
———————————————