ATO activates on May 2, more violence in eastern regions observed

An “active” phase of the anti-terrorist operation (ATO) started in the morning of May 2 in the Donetsk region, the Ukrainian acting president reported through his TV briefing. As a result of the new phase, the most problematic cities of Slaviansk and Kramatorsk were partially freed of terrorists who still remained barricaded in some central buildings. Battles are continuing in the two cities and nearby towns. Terrorists are reportedly using tactics announced by Vladimir Putin on March 4: they put civilians in front of themselves. The exact number of lives lost was not announced. 

The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) expectedly named the ATO as a “punitive military operation involving terrorists from the “right sector” and other ultranationalist organizations”. The May 2statement of the Russian MFA also declared that some English-speaking foreigners were noticed participating in the “punitive operation”. In response to that, the Ukrainian MFA declared that only Ukrainian official forces (of State Security Service, Defense Ministry, Ministry of Internal Affairs and National Guard) are involved in the anti-terrorist operation. According to the statement from the Ukrainian side, the ATO is not used against civil citizens, and “no foreign citizens, except for Russian saboteurs whose involvement has been confirmed by facts, did not and will not participate in the operation”. 

The Ukrainian Ministry highlighted the fact that two Ukrainian helicopters were damaged by shots from MPADS, which peaceful pro-Russian activists cannot be equipped with. Some experts have developed this idea stating that MPADS are usually equipped with IFF systems which prevent shooting at “friendly” aircraft, so these weapon could not have been taken from the Ukrainian army. 

At the same time, more separatist activity was observed in other locations of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions during the long weekend. More administrative buildings have been occupied and more offices have been damaged by extremists in cities of the two regions. In particular, attacked were some offices of Privat Bank (shareholder, governor of Dnipropetrovsk region Ihor Kolomoiskiy, is known as one of the most active in fighters against separatism), offices of pro-Ukrainian parties, and the head office of the Industrial Union of Donbass (shareholder, Serhiy Taruta, is governor of Donetsk region). On top of that, there was an attempt to attack the head office of the Enakieve Steel Plant (ENMZ UK), a part of Rinat Akhmetov’s Metinvest holding (METINV).

Alexander Paraschiy: The long weekend expectedly brought more violence from pro-Russian extremists, and it is naïve to expect any de-escalation of conflict over the next weeks. Critical days ahead are: May 9 – Victory Day, when mobilization of traditionally pro-Soviet activists in expected both in Ukraine and Russia, and another long 3-day weekend; May 11 for which separatists announced a “referendum for independence” of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions; as well as May 25 – when Ukrainian presidential elections are scheduled. The ultimate goal of many of the extremists is to make these elections impossible.