Avdiyivka situation stabilizes as new Donetsk town attacked

The situation in the Donetsk factory town of Avdiyivka, which has been bombarded by pro-Russian forces in recent days, has stabilized, the pravda.com.ua news site reported on Feb. 2, citing an army officer. The OSCE helped to arrange a cease-fire in one region in order to repair electricity lines. Nonetheless, the pro-Russian forces continued to fire 122 and 152 mm caliber artillery at the town the night of Feb. 1, he said. One civilian was reported killed the morning of Feb. 1.

This morning, pro-Russian forces aimed fire at Mariyinka, another town on the frontlines, directly west of Donetsk, reported the local police chief. Buildings were reported to be burning as the local checkpoint was directly targeted with fire. No large industry is based there. With the latest offensive, the Russian government is trying to destabilize the domestic situation in Ukraine and create chaos with the help of criminal gangs, Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) Counterintelligence Head Vitaliy Hayda said in an interview published on Feb. 1 by the liga.net news agency.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg called upon the Russian government to use its significant influence on the fighters in Donbas to cease their fire in a Feb. 1 statement. In Minsk, the Trilateral Contact Group to resolve the conflict in Donbas called for a full cease-fire and a full withdrawal of armaments to the separation line, said on Feb. 1 Darka Olifer, the spokeswoman for Ukraine’s representative. The pro-Russian forces should provide secure conditions for repair work to be conducted on water, electric and natural gas lines, she said, referring to the situation as on the brink of a humanitarian catastrophe.

Zenon Zawada: A captured fighter said he received orders to take control of the Avdiyivka industrial zone (surrounding Europe’s largest coke factory). This lends to the theory that the fighting is in fact a war among oligarchs for control of the plant. Yet the targeting of Mariyinka, a town of no particularly strategic significance, would disprove this theory.

It’s no coincidence the fighting began soon after Presidents Putin and Trump had their first conversation on Jan. 28. Then on Feb. 1, Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the Avdiyivka fighting was an appropriate pretext for renewed dialogue between the two leaders. So the most plausible theory is that Putin is testing the waters with Trump and using the fighting to apply early pressure in their relations. Of course, there could be several factors working simultaneously.