Average monthly salary decreases 1.6% m-o-m in October

The real average official monthly salary in Ukraine dropped by 1.6% m-o-m in October (to UAH 2300 or USD 291), according to the State Statistics Committee yesterday. Mykyta Mykhaylychenko: This implies an increase of 10.8% y-o-y in October, unchanged from September, but below the peak 14.6% y-o-y increase in June of this year. Continuing double digit salary growth rates support a recovery in domestic consumer demand, which is reflected in rising retail sales (up 10.7% y-o-y in October). However, we remain somewhat cautious regarding household consumer demand in the nearest future given higher inflation and devaluation expectations previously reported by the NBU.