30 September 2011
In August, Ukraine’s balance of payment surplus reached USD 214 mln, up twofold m-o-m, Valeriy Litvitskiy, an NBU official said yesterday, according to Interfax. In August, the current account balance was still in the red USD 1.0 bln, while the financial account surplus reached USD 1.23 bln (vs. USD 0.7 bln in July). Svetlana Rekrut: The current account deficit stems from growth in energy resources and consumer goods imports derived from overall economic growth (over 5% in 8M11, see news from September 28) and high devaluation expectations. According to Litvitskiy, in August the fastest growing imports were machinery. This growth is attributed to market rumors of import duties being imposed (in August car sales grew by 46% y-o-y, see news from September 8). The financial account balance benefited from FDI growth by ~2x m-o-m (USD 0.9 bln vs. USD 0.4 bln) as well as a decrease in currency outflow from the banking system (USD 680 mln in August vs. USD 734 mln in July). We expect the consolidated balance of payments to be in a slight surplus at end-2011 (~1% of GDP), and the UAH/USD exchange rate to stay at 8.00.