29 December 2015
Belarus will not follow Russia’s lead in canceling its free trade area with Ukraine, Ukrainian Deputy Economy Minister Nataliya Mykolska tweeted after a meeting involving Ukrainian and Belarusian officials, as reported by the pravda.com.ua news site on Dec. 28. Recall, Russia decided last week to unilaterally cancel its free trade area with Ukraine, which was established in 2011 as a part of multilateral agreement of CIS participants.
Alexander Paraschiy: It wouldn’t have been beneficial for Belarus to exit the FTA with Ukraine, which is an important market for its petroleum: in 10M15, Belarus sold to Ukraine oil products for USD 1.49 bln, and total products for USD 1.99 bln (or about 4.5% of its GDP). For Ukraine, the Belarusian market is much less important (USD 0.71 bln in goods delivered in 10M15), but Belarus’s support is important psychologically. It also is a good political example for other CIS countries, which imported Ukrainian goods worth USD 1.8 bln in 10M15.
It’s also worth noting that Belarus consumed USD 316 mln worth of Ukrainian argi and food products in 10M15, compared to Russia’s USD 226 mln. Thus theoretically, the Belarusian and other CIS markets could serve as alternative consumer of Ukraine’s food after Jan. 1, when the Russian embargo on Ukrainian food imports takes effect.