Biggest strides yet emerge on October 4 to resolve Tymoshenko puzzle

Former Polish President Aleksander Kwasniewski and former European Parliament President Pat Kwasniewski , diplomats representing the EU, presented Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych a petition on October 4 requesting that he grant a pardon to imprisoned former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, said Serhiy Vlasenko, Tymoshenko’s lead defense attorney. The same petition requests that Yanukovych arrange for Tymoshenko to seek medical treatment abroad.

 

The same day, Tymoshenko released a statement through Vlasenko accepting the Cox-Kwasniewski proposal to seek medical treatment abroad. She stated she’s aware that accepting the proposal won’t resolve all her problems, referring to other outstanding criminal charges against her. Tymoshenko won’t seek political asylum or permanent residency abroad, Vlasenko said, and will remain active in politics.

 

Cox and Kwasniewski are hoping to secure Tymoshenko’s release by the time they’re scheduled to report on the situation to the European Parliament, Vlasenko said. “That’s precisely why European politics, who are responsible for escorting Ukraine on the road to signing the Association Agreement, are naming October 15 as one of the key dates,” Vlasenko said. “Time will tell whether Yanukovych find in himself the strength to fulfill the Cox-Kwasniewski petition, but exactly one minute is need for that”.

 

From his end, Yanukovych signed a decree on October 4 dismissing Renat Kuzmin as Ukraine’s first deputy prosecutor general and appointing him deputy head of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine. Kuzmin has led the state prosecution division of the most important cases, including those criminal charges filed against Tymoshenko, of which there are several. He is known by EU leaders as the Ukrainian official who was most active in traveling to the West in trying to convince them of legitimacy of Tymoshenko’s prosecution.

 

In April, European Parliament Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Elmar Brok said Kuzmin “holds personal responsibility for the Yulia Tymoshenko case and other instances of selective justice.” Brok is a member of the European People’s Party, which has a cooperation agreement with the Fatherland party founded by Tymoshenko, who has served two of seven years of a conviction on abuse of authority charges.

 

Zenon Zawada: Friday marked the most significant progress in this conflict since the Cox-Kwasniewski diplomatic mission began in June 2012. A pardon by Yanukovych is the solution to the conflict that is being urged most by political players and observers. Yet Tymoshenko has refused to submit a request for a pardon, which would absolve her of her seven-year prison sentence but not allow her to compete as a candidate in the 2015 presidential election. That refusal remains as much an obstacle as any other factor, yet Vlasenko’s statement of resolving the conflict in one minute means that Tymoshenko will accept a pardon nonetheless.

 

Kuzmin claimed he was merely fulfilling the orders of Prosecutor General Viktor Pshonka in his prosecution of Tymoshenko and the PR campaign afterwards. Yet it’s apparent that the Yanukovych administration has decided to make Kuzmin the scapegoat.

 

In our view, Kuzmin’s dismissal is a strong signal that Yanukovych will arrange for Tymoshenko’s release to seek medical treatment abroad. Yanukovych doesn’t make big personnel shifts often, and only when there’s a strategic gain. The big question that remains is whether Tymoshenko will agree to travel abroad in the event that an arrangement is offered that doesn’t involve a pardon. That scenario would not exonerate her from the abuse of authority charge and the remainder of her seven-year sentence.

 

Arranging for Tymoshenko’s release as early as a month in advance of the Eastern Partnership summit in Vilnius on November 28-29 can secure Yanukovych enormous concessions from the EU on other Association requirements that the Ukrainian government hasn’t fulfilled. Although Vlasenko claims Cox and Kwasniewski will deliver their report on October 15, we reported on information that it has been postponed to November 15.