Bild publishes supposedly leaked battle plan from Russia

On Dec. 4, the German media Bild published a map
showing the overall Russian battle plan for a potential invasion of Ukraine.
The accompanying text explains that according to the source of the leak, the
first stage of the attack would be in southern Ukraine with the aim of cutting
Ukraine off from the Black Sea. If the response internationally is weak enough,
a second front focused on the north-east of the country would commence, and if
that is not stopped, an attack on Kyiv and west would drive any remaining
Ukrainian forces toward Lviv.

The leak comes as air-related incidents are on the
increase. Belarus accused Ukraine on Dec. 4 of sending a helicopter one
kilometer into Belarusian airspace, a move the Ukrainians have denied. Also,
one or possibly two USAF reconnaissance aircraft were involved in incidents
over the Black Sea on Dec. 4, with Aeroflot in particular accusing the USAF of
using an RC-135 Rivet Joint aircraft to force a flight from Tel Aviv to Moscow
to dive in order to avoid a collision. Other reports of a smaller USAF jet
interfering with the flights of private aircraft flying to Moscow have
subsequently been released. Thus far, the Pentagon has not issued a statement
on the incident or incidents. However, flightrader.com showed the Aeroflot
flight and the RC-135 as separated by thousands of feet as the incident
occurred.

James Hydzik: The only thing new with the supposed battle plan would be its
implementation, as the restoration of Russia’s hold over its Empire-era
territory has been a constant refrain since long before Crimea was seized.
Cutting Ukraine off from the Black Sea has been seen as the first step to
making Ukraine capitulate since 2014. However, one thing that is different now
is the rising risk of a provocation or even an actual accident that triggers a
process that cannot be reversed. The Rivet Joint and drone overflights of the
Black Sea and Donbas in the Spring were an essential part of ensuring that any
move would be detected quickly and well documented; the prospect of airliners
being used to interfere with their operations is now a reality.