Coking coal imports to Ukraine rise 21% in December

Ukraine’s coking coal imports rose 21% m/m to 808 kt
in December, according to Concorde Capital’s analysis of a Feb. 3 report by
Interfax-Ukraine, which cited Ukrkoks, an industry association.

In 2019, coking coal imports dropped 12.3% yoy to
10.43 mmt, according to our analysis of the data. By country of origin, imports
from Russia dropped 24.2% to 5.02 mmt, imports from the U.S. slid 6.2% to 4.57
mmt, imports from Kazakhstan jumped 88.5% to 0.75 mmt, and imports from Czech
Republic increased almost 9 times to 0.09 mmt.

Supplies of domestic coking coal to Ukrainian coke
plants amounted to 3.5 mmt in 2019, a 30.3% yoy increase, according to Ukrkoks.

Recall, in April 2019, the Russian government decided to restrict exports
of coal, including coking coal, to Ukraine starting from June 1, allowing such
exports only under permits issued by Russia’s Ministry of Economic Development.

Dmytro Khoroshun: Coking coal
imports seem unlikely to become a bottleneck for Ukrainian iron and steel
production in the near future. Rather, it is the dire situation at the world
steel markets that is limiting Ukraine’s iron and steel exports and production
volumes, and therefore the demand for coke and coking coal.

Ukrainian export iron and steel prices stabilized in
early November and had been rebounding until mid-January, but the situation
with the coronavirus in China is likely to depress these prices in the near
future.

However, if China decides – as a response to the
economic slowdown due to the coronavirus – to stimulate its construction of
infrastructure and especially residential real estate, the demand for coking
coal in Ukraine might rebound eventually.