Court rules that ballots must be reorganized, threatening elections

A Kyiv appellate court has ruled that the list of
parties on election ballots has to be reorganized, which leading officials said
could threaten the conducting of the July 21 parliamentary elections, the
pravda.com.ua news site reported on July 4. “Currently, we have printed
practically 5.2 mln ballots,” Central Election Commission Head Tetiana
Slipachuk told a July 4 press briefing. “It’s hard for me now to comment on all
the legal aspects of the decision, but I am informing you that this action is
aimed at disrupting the elections.” The complaint was filed by the Agrarian
Party of Ukraine, the news site reported. It will not qualify for parliament,
according to polls.

The appellate court ruling threatens the parliamentary
elections, The People’s Servant Party Head Dmytro Razumkov told a Ukrainian
political talk show on July 4. The budget lacks the funds to reprint a new set
of ballots, he said, adding that he hopes the court decision will be appealed.
“Truly, the situation is quite dangerous because, as far as I know, 5.2 mln
ballots have already been printed,” Razumkov said. “This means that part of
budget funds have already been spent and that could lead to the elections being
disrupted.”

Five parties will qualify for parliament in the July
21 parliamentary elections, according to the latest poll released on July 4,
which was conducted by the Rating Sociological Group between June 29 and July 3
among 2,500 respondents. The populist People’s Servant party, loyal to
President Zelensky, has the support of 42.3% of decided voters. The pro-Russian
Opposition Platform For Life party has 13.4% support, the pro-NATO European
Solidarity party has 8.3%, the anti-IMF Fatherland party has 7.2% and the
neoliberal Voice party has 7.2%. In all, parties with a pro-EU platform have
65.0% support, parties with a certain pro-IMF position have 57.8% support, and
parties with a certain pro-NATO have 15.5% support, while the pro-Russian
position has 13.4%.

Zenon Zawada: We expect
this appellate court decision will be overturned on further appeal given that
it has the potential to threaten the nation’s political stability for a
relatively trivial matter.

As for the elections, the most interesting trend is
the rise of the Opposition Bloc of parties led by pro-Russian MP Yevgeny
Murayev, and sponsored by oligarchs Rinat Akhmetov and Vadim Novinsky. An
intense national advertising campaign has boosted its support in recent weeks
to 3.1%, according to the July 4 Rating poll. We believe the party has the best
chance among lagging parties to surpass the 5.0% threshold and become the
surprise of the elections.

The People’s Servant party has already begun to lose
support, Oleksiy Antypovych, the director of the Rating Sociological Group,
told a July 4 press conference. Since Volodymyr Zelensky’s election as
president in late April, we have expressed confidence that his popularity, and
that of The People’s Servant party, will gradually decline with each passing
month because it will be impossible for them to meet public expectations.

In the unusual event that the elections are postponed
(because of the need to reprint ballots or other reasons), this will work
against Zelensky and The People’s Servant, and in favor of former President
Poroshenko and his European Solidarity party.