7 October 2011
Ukraine’s consumer price index rose 0.1% m-o-m in September, the State Statistics Committee reported yesterday. In y-o-y terms, CPI declined to 5.9% (vs. 8.9% y-o-y in August), YTD inflation was 4.2% (vs. 4.1% in August). Svetlana Rekrut: The deceleration in CPI stemmed from food price (54% of the CPI basket in August) growth slowing to 3.5% y-o-y vs. 8.3% y-o-y in August and 9.6% y-o-y in July, as a result of the harvest. In August, the fastest growing CPI components were transport (+22.3% y-o-y, 4.7% of CPI basket) and utility tariffs (+12.0% y-o-y, 11% of CPI basket). In m-o-m terms, education (2% of CPI basket) was the growth leader, rising by 3.5% y-o-y due to the start of the new academic year. We see inflation accelerating slightly in October-December, with annual CPI at 9-10% y-o-y.