Direct talks between Ukraine, Donbas representatives under way, Yermak says

A consultative council is currently being formed,
within the framework of the Minsk peace talks, to enable direct negotiations
between Ukrainian diplomats and representatives of the Russian-backed republics
of Donetsk and Luhansk, Andriy Yermak, the head of the President’s Office of
Ukraine, confirmed on Mar. 13. Both the Russian and Ukrainian sides of the
Trilateral Contact Group have established the need and possibility for this
council within the political subgroup, which has yet to be officially approved,
Yermak told reporters. The council would discuss constitutional reform under
decentralization, as well as the organization of local elections in Donetsk and
Luhansk (collectively known as “Donbas”), Yermak indicated in his
comments. Russian officials will not be involved in the council, the
pravda.com.ua news site said.

“Ukrainian citizens, who have been forced to live on
territory which is not controlled by the government, have been deprived of
their right to have their voice and also express their position on these
issues,” he said. In response to accusations that he’s capitulating to Russian
demands (for direct talks with proxies), Yermak said, “The issue is not about
any direct negotiations. We are talking about creating platforms where citizens
– who live in the controlled and uncontrolled territories – can communicate on
issues agreed upon in the Minsk Accords.” The council’s creation will be
decided upon at the next Trilateral Contact Group meeting, he said.

Yermak’s confirmation drew a harsh reaction from
Ukraine’s pro-Western forces. European Solidarity MP Volodymyr Viatrovych said
he submitted several criminal complaints alleging state treason by Yermak and
former President Kuchma, Ukraine’s lead negotiator at the Trilateral Contact
Group, for signing the document on Mar. 11 in Minsk that calls for the creation
of the consultative group. Their actions are “evidence of their support for the
actions of the aggressor state, aimed at removing from Russia its
responsibility for its aggression and occupation of Ukrainian territory, as
well as the interpretation of this aggression and occupation as an ‘internal
conflict’ and the representatives of the occupying bodies as alleged
representatives of the separate districts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions,”
the complaint said.

Roman Bezsmertniy, a former Ukrainian negotiator at
the Trilateral Contact Group (dismissed in August), outlined dire consequences
for Ukraine on the international arena as a result of this decision, both
politically and legally. “In the political sense, this decision indicates the
ruining of the Friends of Ukraine club in the world,” he said in an interview
with the pravda.com.ua news site published on Mar. 13. “Even the biggest
supporter of Ukraine, sitting on his chair, will wipe his forehead and say,
‘Thank God!’ This means that Kyiv is refusing support. In the legal sense, this
is, in essence, the recognition of the sides in the conflict to be the
representatives of [Donbas] and Ukraine, and the removal of Russia from the framework
of the conflict, transferring it into the status of an observer and possibly
even peacemaker. This consultative council will play the role of a moderator.
Moscow will impose any accounting, which will be created not based on U.N.
protocols, but the rules of this council.”

Agreeing to the consultative council, in this form,
will lead to President Zelensky’s resignation, Bezsmertniy said in the
interview. “He himself already understands that achieving peace won’t be
possible, and a political catastrophe could occur,” he said. “Once society
begins to gain more information about the process that has been launched, even
the boldest supporters of Zelensky will go against him. What happened has
ruined a shaky balance. Everything that will occur after the signing of these
agreements won’t be politics. He turned himself into the dominion of two
bosses, and there’s no way out. All this sets into motion a powerful crisis
flywheel. Imagine now what will be with the army in this situation.”

Zenon Zawada: President
Zelensky was elected by the Ukrainian public last year for several key reasons,
the main one being to find an end to the warfare in Donbas. So in making
concessions to Russia, as this consultative council most certainly would be,
Zelensky and Yermak are merely fulfilling the mandate given to him by the
Ukrainian public. Anyone thinking that peace with Russia would not involve
severe concessions, if not outright capitulation, was misguided or misinformed.
But we believe the majority of Zelensky’s electorate won’t be opposed to this
soft and gradual capitulation. Instead, it will energize their support for
Zelensky, contrary to the views of Bezsmertniy.

As we’ve said consistently, the main question on
Zelensky’s path to capitulation to Russia is what the pro-Western resistance
will look like. So far, it’s not impressive. Legal complaints won’t achieve
much in Ukraine’s non-functioning courts. A rather feeble protest was held the
evening of Mar. 13 at the President’s Office. More than 5,000 war veterans and
volunteers engaged in marches and protests on Mar. 14, including at the Russian
embassy in Kyiv, but the gathering had already been planned for weeks. And of
course, the coronavirus quarantine undermines the potential for protests in the
coming weeks.

At this point, a decisive role can be played by
pro-Western MPs of the pro-presidential People’s Servant party. Those opposed
to the capitulation have the ability to surrender their mandates, force the
dismissal of the cabinet and force the formation of a new majority and cabinet.
But although several MPs have indicated their opposition to the consultative
council’s creation, there is no sign there are enough willing to go to the
extreme to force the government’s dismissal.