Donbas could end up as frozen conflict, Zelensky says

It’s possible the warfare in Donbas will end up a
frozen conflict without the region’s reintegration into the mainland, Ukrainian
President Zelensky told an Oct. 10 marathon press conference in which he took
questions all day. “I would really not want for the conflict in Donbas to
become frozen. I would really not want for us to have Transnistria or Abkhazia.
I really don’t want that. But I can’t say and guarantee 100% that that won’t
happen,” he said. Currently, the only thing distinguishing Donbas from these
Russian-controlled territories active warfare, Zelensky said. “We have
there Transnistria, practically. There aren’t any relations,” he said,
referring to the lack of international recognition of these Russian-propped
states.

Regarding the Ukrainian paramilitaries vowing to
disrupt the withdrawal of forces, Zelensky said he won’t use force against them
and will try to convince them of his position. “We will talk with the veterans,
who are respected by every Ukrainian. With those people, who are there for
other reasons, they need to be told above all that if you violate the law, then
then you will face these things. How can you shoot if you’re not a soldier now?
Please, join the military and fulfill your tasks. Our armies, police,
intelligence and security officials are there now. The security situation is
fully controlled. Why walk around and scare people? They’re scared as it is,”
he said.

The Ukrainian claims are baseless that the mutual
withdrawal of forces in the Luhansk region is being deliberately violated by
the Donbas fighters, Russian Presidential Aide Yury Ushakov alleged on Oct. 9.
“The Ukrainian side yesterday – under an invented pretext of violations to the ceasefire
regime – did not undertake the practical steps to withdrawal,” he said. Recall,
Ukrainian leaders said their forces were ready to begin a withdrawal of forces
in the towns of Zolote and Petrivske on Oct. 7, which was disrupted by mortar
fire from the Russian-backed forces. A ceasefire of seven days is needed for
another withdrawal attempt, Ukraine’s foreign minister said.

Zenon Zawada: Nothing will be frozen in Donbas. Either Zelensky will capitulate to
Russian demands, or Russia will keep the pressure on him by extending the
warfare. There is no other way out for Zelensky. To satisfy his voter base and
succeed as president, Zelensky needs to fulfill the Minsk Accords, which we
view as capitulation to Russia, or deliver another major political victory. The
economic breakthrough being promised by his Cabinet doesn’t look realistic
without a serious fight against corruption, which doesn’t seem to be happening.
As was apparent at the press marathon, Zelensky is saying all the right things,
but hasn’t made any hard choices. If he doesn’t make them, his political regime
will begin to disintegrate by the summer.