Donbas crisis could be overcome but resolution far away, Putin says

A resolution to the conflict in Donbas is still “far away, but there are things that provide certainty that the crisis could be overcome,” Russian President Vladimir Putin told a Russian human rights council on Oct. 1, as reported by the RIA Novosti news site. “The main thing is there isn’t shooting today,” he said. “We will be counting on a dialogue being positive between these unrecognized republics and the Kyiv government, and that the main condition for achieving any compromise will be achieved, which is direct dialogue.” He said he hopes that all armed conflicts will end after armaments less than 100 mm are removed. “And, of course, I am counting on the fulfillment of the Minsk accords,” he said. “My colleagues and I will talk about that tomorrow in Paris.”

Putin, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, French President Francoise Hollande and German Chancellor Angela Merkel will meet today in Paris to discuss the armed conflict in Donbas. The Europeans will demand that Putin arrange for the cancellation of illegal elections scheduled for Oct. 18 and Nov. 1 as the key precondition for fulfilling the Minsk accords, Deputy Presidential Administration Head Kostiantyn Yeliseyev told an Oct. 1 press briefing. Meanwhile, the president is considering a request submitted by Putin for a bilateral meeting, Yeliseyev said. Putin is already scheduled to meet with Hollande before the formal talks begin.

The fighters of the Donetsk People’s Republic have ceased to remove artillery with calibers less than 100 mm because Ukrainian soldiers fired on Donetsk the morning of Oct. 1, alleged Aleksandr Zakharchenko, the leader of the Donetsk People’s Republic, as reported by Interfax. “I very strongly doubt that it will be fulfilled,” he said, referring to the Sept. 29 agreement reached in Minsk to remove tanks and artillery with calibers less than 100 mm and mortars with calibers less than 120 mm. Meanwhile, the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine reported that the Russian-backed terrorists fighters fired on Ukrainian positions three times in the 24 hours leading up to the morning.

Zenon Zawada: Today marks a pivotal moment in the war in Donbas. With the current Russian air bombings in Syria, Putin seems to have created a means of saving face before the Russian public while backing out of Donbas. He can still look like a tough guy in spite of a retreat, which resolves one of the key obstacles he faced. In this pivotal moment, the most critical point in the negotiations will be the cancellation of the illegal elections and the arrangement of elections that conform fully with Ukrainian law.

We remain pessimistic on the prospects for peace and the fulfillment of the Minsk accords. The constitutional amendments setting up the specific order for occupied Donbas require that Russian soldiers be removed and the Ukrainian government re-establish control over its border. We believe Putin will never allow for that. Knowing how desperate Western leaders are for some reduction in fighting however, we believe Putin will offer just enough concessions that he thinks would prompt the Western leaders to weaken the sanctions. Nonetheless, we don’t expect he will be successful in this game that he’s playing.

We believe that some halfway concessions and agreements could be reached, such as holding the elections according to Ukrainian law and withdrawing some arms (but far from all, in reality), but no agreement on the critical issues of restoring Ukrainian control of the border and withdrawing Russian soldiers. Something to keep in mind is that even if Putin allows Donbas to return under Ukrainian control, he still faces sanctions over Crimea, a territory he can’t surrender. So withdrawing from Donbas won’t solve many of his problems with the West.