Doubts are being aired as to whether the ceasefire announced for the fighting in southeast Ukraine is holding. On Wednesday, Feb. 22, German Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel called on all sides of the conflict to honor the agreement first made at the tri-lateral meeting in Minsk on Feb. 15, Deutsche Welle reports. In particular, Gabriel pointed to the presence of heavy weapons that should have been withdrawn beginning on Feb. 20.
Gabriel’s words come after comments by OSCE Secretary General Lamberto Zannier told Reuters on Feb. 21 that the situation in Donbas “doesn’t look good”. Also on Feb. 21, the OSCE SMM, which is tasked with monitoring conditions on the combat zone, reported that heavy weapons were missing from agreed upon locations on both sides, that the number of explosions recorded along the front was not dropping, and that the explosions included those from large-caliber weapons.
James Hydzik: Though the shelling is down from its peak earlier in the month, there is no sign that the fighting will return to its previous lull soon. Other layers of the ongoing war, including the IT, (dis)information, and diplomatic fronts, are also actively engaged. Though the U.S. government is taking a harder turn toward Russia, we see the European Union as needing to take the lead in getting the fighting to wind down, at least militarily. How this happens, though, remains to be seen.