Donbas frozen conflict, military solution unacceptable, Volker says

A frozen conflict, or a military offensive, are both
approaches that are unacceptable in resolving the armed conflict in Donbas,
U.S. Special Envoy Kurt Volker told the eurointegration.com.ua news site in an
interview published on Feb. 21. “There haven’t been any fundamental changes in
this conflict for the last three years,” Volker said. “I don’t know if that
means that it has been ‘cemented.’ And, by the way, turning Donbas into a
‘frozen conflict’ is also an unacceptable option. That won’t satisfy anyone”
and no one will agree to that outcome. He added that it will be impossible to
resolve the conflict militarily, nor will it be possible to resolve if to leave
the conflict in its current state.

UN peacekeepers are needed to break the closed circle
in the conflict, Volker said, in which the Russians demand political
concessions from Ukrainians, who in turn demand restoring control of the border
in the occupied territory before organizing elections. “What needs to be done
is to withdraw Russian forces, agree on peacekeepers, and allow them to enforce
control of the border and protect weapons arsenals,” he said. “And if all that
is done, then it will be Ukraine’s turn to fulfill its part of the Minsk
Accords – organize local elections, declare amnesty and approve its special
status.” Volker said he expects Russia to come with constructive ideas on
peacekeeping in March, after the presidential elections.

Russia has yet to decide whether it wants peace in
Donbas, Volker said. Russia is gaining nothing positive from its occupation in
Ukraine, which is only strengthening Ukrainian identity and fueling pro-Western
attitudes. “I hope at some point that they will reach a conclusion in Moscow.
Though it would contradict their long-term goals, but what’s tactically most
advantageous for them is to halt the occupation and renew Ukraine’s integrity.”
The recently approved Javelin anti-tank missiles are a part of the military aid
the U.S. is offering Ukraine, “but a lot more is involved,” he said, without
offering more specifics.

Zenon Zawada: The very
reason that Volker said a frozen conflict or military offensive are
unacceptable to resolve the Donbas warfare is because those are among the top
options that the Russian government is considering to resolving the conflict.
(Fulfilliment of the Minsk Accords is also on the table for the Russians.) And
the U.S. wants to avoid these outcomes because of the costs involved.

We have expressed the view that a frozen conflict is
the most likely way the warfare is resolved. A military offensive is more expensive
for the Russians, while we don’t think the Russians are itching to fulfill the
Minsk Accords because the momentum in Europe is for the sanctions to be relaxed
in the next two years. Nationalist-populist parties continue to make impressive
gains, which will be repeated in the Italian parliamentary vote on March 4.
Given this momentum, we don’t expect agreement on a UN peacekeeping mission
until after Ukraine’s 2019 elections.

Volker is on the mark when he says Russia has yet to
decide if it wants peace in Donbas. We believe a key turning point will be the
parliamentary elections in Ukraine scheduled for October 2019. If
Russian-oriented parties secure enough votes to form the parliamentary
opposition, the Russian government will be emboldened further.

Although Volker is correct in stating there has
been a national revival in Ukraine and rise in pro-Western sentiments owing to
the conflict, Volker shouldn’t be overly confident that Russophile sentiments
have waned. Recent polls indicate that Russian-oriented parties stand to
perform well in the 2019 parliamentary elections, particularly in the
traditionally Russophile regions of southeast Ukraine.