Donbas peace talks to resume in Minsk today

The Trilateral Contact Group to resolve the conflict in Donbas will meet today in Minsk, involving the participation of Boris Gryzlov, an advisor to Russian President Putin who was appointed in late December as Russia’s representative. Gryzlov met with Ukraine’s unofficial representative, former President Leonid Kuchma, in Kyiv on Jan. 11 to discuss ways to resolve the conflict. Afterwards, he also reportedly met with Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, which drew wide public criticism.

Zenon Zawada: There is much speculation on what Gryzlov and Kuchma discussed on Monday, with very little known. What we can state with confidence is that the president is preparing the public, particularly parliament, to approve legislation to hold local elections in the occupied territory of Donbas. They likely also discussed changes to the Constitution to create the Donbas special order, which can only be established after elections are successfully held.

Much of the speculation in Kyiv involves the belief that Russian President Putin is getting desperate to remove the Western sanctions, especially amid oil prices that keep hitting new lows. But removing the sanctions would ultimately require Moscow surrendering control of Donbas, as the Ukrainian side has demanded the removal of Russian soldiers to hold elections. Moreover, Ukrainian control of the border would need to be re-established for the special order to take effect.

We do not see Putin and his entourage being willing to take such steps, despite the deteriorating condition of the Russian economy. And we don’t see the Ukrainian public accepting anything less. The Kremlin views its control of Donbas as a key instrument in order to influence and destabilize the Kyiv government, and return to power a Russian-oriented government, which is its ultimate goal.

The only compromise we see is one in which Ukraine regains de jure control of Donbas, but Russia somehow retains de facto control. But sooner or later, such a deceptive scheme will become apparent to the Ukrainian public. We urge investors to view these peace talks through the prism of Russia’s ultimate goal, which is to cause internal strife and political destabilization within Ukraine.