Donbas trade blockade supported by nearly half of public

Nearly half of Ukrainians, or 47%, support the
government’s trade blockade of the Donbas region, while 37% are against,
according to a poll of 2,018 respondents conducted between June 9 and 13 by the
Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Fund. More than half of Ukrainians, or 55%,
support official recognition of Donbas as occupied territory, while 22% are
against. 70% support diplomatic compromise to resolve the conflict, while 18%
prefer a military solution. 55% support returning Donbas based on its pre-war
conditions, as part of the unitary Ukrainian state, while 20% support autonomy
and 9% want the territory to become separate. 60% support introducing an
international peacekeeping mission, while 20% are against.

Zenon Zawada: While the
Ukrainian public has been long consistent on certain positions (returning
Donbas to unitary Ukraine, reaching a diplomatic solution with Western pressure
on Russia), the poll reveals public confusion on how to handle the war in Donbas.
That confusion is largely the result of the government’s inability to present
and execute a consistent strategy. For instance, the trade blockade has solid
public support, but rather than integrating Donbas (a proposal that also has
solid public support), the blockade has succeeded in pushing the territory
towards integrating with Russia. Yet the proposal of separating the territory
from Ukraine has little support, contradicting the effects of the blockade. 

The poll also reveals the
public doesn’t support the basic premises of the Minsk Accords. For example, a
majority now support official recognition of the territory as occupied, which
would render the requirements of the Minsk Accords moot (including holding
elections). A majority of Ukrainians want Donbas as part of the unitary state,
while the Minsk Accords call for autonomy. But while the Minsk Accords are
universally recognized as defunct, no diplomatic mechanism to replace them has
emerged.