Donbas war talks result in basic timetable to fulfill Minsk accords

The Oct. 2 negotiations in Paris to resolve the Donbas conflict resulted in an agreement on a basic timetable to fulfill certain requirements of the Minsk accords, without specifics being revealed. The talks involved Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, Russian President Vladimir Putin, French President Francois Hollande and German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who referred to the new agreements as the “Paris Guarantees,” as reported by the Interfax news agency. Merkel said saw light progress in fulfilling the Minsk accords and “both sides drew exceptionally closer to each other.”

The Ukrainian side agreed to begin on Oct. 3 to remove artillery at calibers less than 100 mm – including tanks and mortars – from the Donbas conflict line over the course of 41 days. The Ukraine Armed Forces confirmed that day that it began the process of withdrawal. The Luhansk People’s Republic also began withdrawing its artillery that day, reported the DPA news agency. The Russian side said it will discuss cancelling the illegal elections on Donbas scheduled for Oct. 18 and Nov. 1, admitting that it has influence on the Donbas terrorists. “I stress that it’s not worth talking about elections apart from other corresponding agreements, such as political reform and amnesty,” said Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary of the Russian Presidential Administration, as reported by the Interfax news agency.

The established timetable for fulfilling the Minsk accords must extend until the year end, Hollande said, as reported by Interfax. Both he and Peskov didn’t rule out that the fulfillment of the accords will extend beyond 2015. The Donbas elections should occur with 80 days of the new elections law being approved, in accordance with Ukrainian legislation, Hollande said. The candidates must also be granted immunity, he added.

Once these elections are held, the Russian government must remove its army and restore control of the border to the Ukrainian government, Hollande said. In contrast, Poroshenko said in an Oct. 4 television interview that the withdrawal of Russian soldiers must occur regardless of the holding of elections. As an accomplishment in Paris, Poroshenko cited the OSCE’s enhanced ability to monitor the entire occupied territory. Meanwhile, the decision to cancel the illegal elections must be announced by Oct. 6, he said. The Ukrainian government must restore control of its border by the year end, he said, before any amendments are approved to the Ukrainian Constitution.

The Donbas ceasefire was fully upheld between Oct. 1 and 3, reported the press center of the Anti-Terrorist Operation on Oct. 4.

Zenon Zawada: The Paris talks went as we expected, with minor concessions being made but big question marks looming over the critical points of the Minsk accords. Among these questions is whether the sides will agree to the Donbas elections being held before the Ukrainian Constitution is amended, whether the Russian government surrenders control of the border and when Russian soldiers will be removed.

We expect a ceasefire will more or less be upheld henceforth (until Putin decides he needs to aggravate the conflict for some political aim), but we don’t expect: (1) elections will be held successfully, (2) the Constitution will be amended, (3) Russian soldiers will be removed and (4) the Ukrainian government will restore control of the border.

Already, contrasting interpretations of the talks have been offered by Poroshenko and Hollande, who referred to different timetables on the withdrawal of Russian soldiers. Moreover, Poroshenko has repeated that he won’t support the amendments without Ukraine’s retaking control of the border first.