Donbas warfare extends into second day after cease-fire declared

Battles continued on Feb. 16 between Ukrainian forces and Russian-backed separatists for the railroad hub of Debaltseve and the village of Shyrokyno, both located in the Donetsk region, reported Ukrainian authorities that day. Outside of Shyrokyno, Ukrainian forces retaliated against separatists who attacked with mortars and tank fire. The separatists also used mortars, howitzers and Grad missile launchers to attack Debaltseve on the evening of Feb. 16, a Donetsk police official told the 5 Channel news network. “We are responding only to full hits against our positions,” he said. “We aren’t answering, but remain silent, in response to single mortar attacks.”

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, French President Francois Hollande and German Chancellor Angela Merkel engaged in a Feb. 16 telephone conversation during which they agreed to demand access for OSCE observers to Debaltseve so that they can monitor the cease-fire. The three leaders expressed their concern with the ongoing fighting, particularly around Debaltseve, Western news agencies reported.  Another conversation was held that night involving Merkel, Poroshenko and Russian President Vladimir Putin, in which the Ukrainian president demanded the Russian president use his authority to stop the attacks by separatists, as reported by the press service of the Ukrainian Presidential Administration.

The situation in eastern Ukraine is not unexpected and “fragile, particularly with regard to Debaltseve,” said German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Feb. 17, as reported by the Reuters news agency. “It was always clear that much remains to be done. And I have always said that there are no guarantees that what we are trying to do succeeds. It will be an extremely difficult path.”

The United States is gravely concerned by the deteriorating situation in and around Debaltseve in eastern Ukraine, reported on Feb. 16 Jen Psaki, the spokesperson for the U.S. State Department.  Ukrainian forces have been fired upon 129 times in the last 24 hours by Russian-backed separatists, killing five and wounding 25, including attacks on a convoy evacuating the wounded from Debaltseve, she reported. The separatists have publicly declared that they refuse to observe the cease-fire in Debaltseve and OSCE monitors have not been provided security guarantees for access, she reported. “These aggressive actions and statements by the Russia-backed separatists threaten the most recent cease-fire and jeopardize the planned withdrawal of heavy weapons as called for in the Feb. 12 Minsk packet of implementing measures,” she said.

The OSCE Special Monitoring Mission has confirmed that attacks are continuing in Debaltseve and other locations, Psaki said on Feb. 16. “We call on Russia and the separatists it backs to halt all attacks immediately, engage with the OSCE to facilitate the cease-fire and – as called for in the packet of measures agreed to on Feb. 12 – fully implement their Sept. 5 and 19 Minsk commitments,” she said.

The European Union has expanded its sanctions of visa restrictions and asset freezes to include 19 individuals and 9 organizations involved in the Donbas warfare, the Official Journal of the European Union reported on Feb. 16. Among those targeted were Russian First Deputy Defense Minister Arkadiy Bakhin and Deputy Defense minister Anatoliy Antonov, whom the EU suspects as being responsible for dispatching Russian armies to Ukraine. The decision to expand the list was reached by the EU Foreign Ministers Council on Feb. 9 in response to terrorist attacks against civilians in Mariupol that occurred on Jan. 24.

Zenon Zawada: Talks about providing lethal, defensie weapons are going to heat up again, as well as another round of EU sanctions.  However, we see the West refraining from imposing such measures so long as the casualty count remains low (less than five per day) and doesn’t affect civilians. These proposals will become reality, however, should the Russian-backed separatists cross that line (low casualties, limited to soldiers).