Ukraine’s state power regulator (NERC) approved an additional surcharge to Donbassenergo’s (DOEN UK) power tariff that will raise additional net revenue of UAH 1.11 bln at consumers’ expense. The company will receive the surcharge revenue in equal monthly installments over six years. In particular, Donbassenergo will receive UAH 95.5 mln from the surcharge in 2013, UAH 190.9 mln p.a. in 2014-2018, and the rest in 2019.
The additional surcharge revenue will be used to repay principal and interest on the loan related to reconstruction of Donbassenergo’s 7th unit at Slaviansk TPP. Recall, Donbassenergo signed a related loan agreement for UAH 1.337 bln with Oschadbank on June 17. Earlier, the Cabinet approved a UAH 2.52 bln modernization program of Slaviansk’s 7th unit.
Alexander Paraschiy: Just this surcharge will bring an additional profit to the company of UAH 3.0/share in 2013 (and UAH 6.1/share in 2014). Most likely, Donbassenergo will have to pay a 30% dividend from this profit, which would amount to an additional dividend yield of 4% next year and 8% in two years.
Recall, the modernization of Slaviansk’s 7th power unit is the smaller of the two recently approved projects of Donbassenergo. If the company receives an additional surcharge for its Slaviansk 6th unit modernization project, which is 3x larger, it will become an enormous dividend play in the near future.
The trick in all this is that Donbassenergo, as a state-controlled company, is obliged by law to pay 30% of its net income in dividends. The company’s status will not change even if the SPF privatizes the company in 2013, as the state will retain a 25% stake. The key risk here will be the possible change in the law that will enable avoiding dividend payments from these kinds of special surcharges.