Aleksandr Zakharchenko, the head of the self-declared
Donetsk People’s Republic, announced on July 18 that he supports the creation
of a Malorossiya state based on the separatist territories of Donetsk and
Luhansk and encompassing most of the current regions of Ukraine. The proposal
has the support of representatives of occupied Donetsk and Luhansk, as well as
19 regions of Ukraine, the statement alleged, without revealing any
individuals. “We reached the conclusion that Ukraine hasn’t come into being. The
Kyiv regime is incapable of ending the civil war. We propose creating the
Malorossiya state, an independent young state in a transition period of three
years,” said the statement, as reported by RIA Novosti.
In response, the leaders of the self-declared Luhansk
People’s Republic said they don’t support the proposal, nor were they even
aware of such plans. The Malorossiya project was invented by Zakharchenko
without Moscow’s knowledge, insisted Russian Presidential Administration
spokesman Dmitry Peskov. Yet Ukrainian leaders didn’t believe such claims, as
President Poroshenko described Zakharchenko as “a puppet transmitting Kremlin
messages.” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin said the Kremlin is trying
to create an Abkhazian scenario with Donbas, in which the Ukrainian government
has no control over the region, which nonetheless remains tucked within
Ukraine’s borders in order to pressure Kyiv and strain the economy.
An EU statement in response pointed out that the
Malorossiya proposal violates the Minsk Accords, which calls for reintegrating
the Donbas region into Ukraine and whose language is restricted to establishing
local self-governance. The German government condemned the proposal, demanding
a similar response from the Kremlin, which limited its comments to continuing
to support the Minsk Accords.
Zenon Zawada:
Zakharchenko’s proposal is so far-fetched that it can’t be taken at face value.
We share the widely held view that it’s intended to raise the stakes in current
negotiations to enable the Kremlin the chance to create some kind of autonomous
state. It also serves as a distraction from more tangible day-to-day matters,
such as hostage negotiations.
Moscow is currently faced with the dilemma that it is
successfully integrate these regions into its economy and society, yet it
doesn’t want to annex them into the Russian Federation. Gaining greater
autonomy for these lands than what’s called for in the Minsk Accords would
resolve this dilemma, without returning the territory to Ukrainian government
control.
This latest development fits with our view that the
Putin administration never took seriously the Minsk Accords, which were
intended as a trap for the West and Ukraine. The Abkhazian scenario practically
exists already in occupied Donbas, except that Russia does not recognize its
independence. The only question now is how long can Russia withstand the
sanctions to fulfil the Abkhazian scenario in Ukraine.