GDP growth will end up at about 1% in 2012 though the state budget projected 3.9% yoy, Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych told a Dec. 25 briefing.
Alexander Paraschiy: The president finally recognized the economy was stagnant in 2012 a few days before the year’s end. Already in mid-year it became obvious that the cabinet’s GDP growth plan would be missed after industry proved to be in recession and agri-production turned negative on the back of a harvest slump. Even the government’s late estimate looks a bit optimistic. Our estimate of GDP growth is 0.3% in 2012. In 2013, we expect some strengthening of growth to 2.2% yoy, providing the recession will find a floor in early 2013.