About 41% of public willing to support Zelensky for three years, poll says

About 41% of
Ukrainians believe President Zelensky needs at least three years to demonstrate
quality and effective results, according to a poll published on Nov. 28 by the
Rating Sociological Group. Another 28% of Ukrainians, or 69% in total, believe
Zelensky needs at least a year to show results. About 53% of Ukrainians believe
Zelensky has been more effective as president than his predecessor, Petro
Poroshenko. Only 15% believe he has been less effective as president. The poll
was conducted between Nov. 20 and 24 involving 2,500 respondents.

Zenon Zawada: We can draw two main conclusions
from these figures. The first is that Zelensky has the firm support of about
41% of the public for at least three years. The poll figures also confirmed
that this is his core electorate, which is concentrated in the southeastern
cities, whose industry and culture is tighly interconnected with Russia. It’s
our position, however, that this support will evaporate quicker than three
years if Zelensky isn’t able to end the armed fighting in Donbas by
the summer. If succeeds
however, he has a powerful core electorate of at least 30%, similar to former
President Yanukovych at his peak.

The second conclusion is the assessment of Zelensky’s performance –
after just six months as president – as compared to Poroshenko’s five years is
a temporary trend, fueled by emotion and based on the public’s trust that he
will end the warfare in Donbas. (For all of Poroshenko’s failings, he certainly
accomplished more in his five years than Zelensky in his six months.) If he
fails to do that by the summer, this positive assessment will also evaporate.