Astarta sugar sales slide 8%, key crop sales surge 62% in2019

Ukrainian farmer and leading sugar producer Astarta
(AST PW) reported 60.9 kt in sugar sales in 4Q19, which is 16% more yoy. Its
average sugar price in the quarter amounted to UAH 9.7/kg, which is 1% better
yoy but 4% less qoq. Its aggregate volume of key crop sales (wheat, corn,
sunflower) was 339.3 kt in 4Q19, which is 29% more yoy. The crops’ average
price decreased 12% yoy and 3% qoq. Its volume of soybean oil sales fell 34%
yoy to 10.6 kt, while volume of soybean meal sold advanced 32% yoy to 44.8 kt.
Its milk sales dropped 11% yoy to 21.9 kt, while milk price increased 8% yoy
and 9% qoq to UAH 10.3/kg.

Based on its quarterly results, Concorde Capital
calculates that Astarta sold 300.7 kt of sugar in 2019 (8% less yoy) at an
average price of UAH 10.0/kg (-5% yoy). Its total sales of three key crops
surged 62% yoy to 1,145 kt in 2019, while their average price slid 12% yoy in
UAH terms. Its amount of soybean oil and meal climbed 8% and 18% to 45.9 kt and
167.1 kt, respectively, while their prices fell 10% and 15%, respectively. Its
milk sales decreased 9% yoy to 94.2 kt while milk prices improved 14% yoy to
UAH 9.4/kg in 2019.

Alexander Paraschiy: Based on the company’s operating results, we estimate Astarta
generated EUR 131 mln in revenue in 4Q19 (up 10% yoy) and EUR 464 mln in 2019
(up 25% yoy). Its full-year 2019 EBITDA will likely be between EUR 40 and 50
mln, which will be 14%-30% less yoy and the weakest result in the last decade.