Avakov confirms vote-buying investigations of Poroshenko campaign

Internal Affairs Minister Arsen Avakov confirmed that
his officials are investigating several criminal complaints submitted by
presidential contender Yulia Tymoshenko alleging vote-buying schemes by the
re-election campaign of President Poroshenko. He didn’t say specifically
whether criminal cases have been opened, as alleged by Tymoshenko. Among those
accused of elections violations is MP Serhiy Berezenko, the deputy
parliamentary faction head of the Poroshenko Bloc, he said in an interview with
the dt.ua news site published on Feb. 22. “He is named as an organizer of
schemes,” Avakov said. “He is a people’s deputy and investigations can’t
involve him. But the fact remains that he’s mentioned in proceedings.
Tymoshenko submitted an enormous pile of documents where Berezenko is also
mentioned.”

Regarding allegations the Tymoshenko campaign is
engaged in vote-buying, Avakov said the Prosecutor General’s Office is
investigating them. (Prosecutor General Yuriy Lutsenko is a close ally to
President Poroshenko.) The interior minister denied any political alliance with
Tymoshenko or any other presidential candidate, stressing that he’s committed
to “ensuring the maximally honest process without schemes and falsifications.”
He also pointed to incidents in which police investigated election fraud claims
made by the Poroshenko campaign. In a Facebook post on Feb. 22, Avakov claimed
that a provocation was being planned against him involving a large wire of
foreign currency to one of his bank accounts, with the intention of accusing
him of being on a candidate’s payroll.

The National Police, led by Avakov, was reportedly
involved in an elections-related conflict on Feb. 21 in the city of Sumy with
officers of the Security Service of Ukraine, which is controlled by President
Poroshenko. Local police said they were informed of vote-buying occurring at a
location, which they visited and arrested two suspects before releasing them.
The two suspects were Poroshenko campaign workers who were allegedly
distributing funds at the local headquarters, reported the pravda.com.ua news
site on Feb. 21, citing anonymous sources in a prosecutor’s office. Local
prosecutors reported on their website that they opened criminal cases against
the police for abuse of authority. Meanwhile, local Security Service officers
conducted a search of the police headquarters and filed criminal charges of
abuse of authority, as alleged by Fatherland MP Vadym Ivchenko. It’s not clear
if these alleged charges are the same as those pursued by local prosecutors.

Presidential contender Yulia Tymoshenko offered a full
endorsement of Avakov’s work as internal affairs minister at a Feb. 22 press
conference. “I am very joyful that for the first time in history of political
elections, the internal affairs minister won’t be covering up falsifications
and vote-buying that the current president will be committing,” she said. She
also added, “In the context of the current political conditions, the Internal
Affairs Ministry and Arsen Avakov are absolutely dedicated to working to
prevent falsifications and vote-buying, and for the country as a whole to see
who is truly behind the scenes of the presidential elections. And I welcome
Avakov’s position,” she said.

Zenon Zawada: We had been
holding out hope that Avakov would be playing the role of the neutral arbiter
in the elections, despite mounting speculations that he has a tacit alliance
with the Tymoshenko campaign. Had Tymoshenko’s remarks on Feb. 22 been more
tempered, we would continue to believe so. But the boldness of her statements
expressing full confidence in Avakov’s work leaves no room for her to criticize
the police chief in case he makes statements or actions during the vote count
that work against her interests. To us, this confirms the speculation that
there must be some kind of tacit agreement between them.

MP Serhiy Leshchenko, who had been warning about a
Tymoshenko-Avakov alliance for weeks, now believes Poroshenko will act to
dismiss Avakov as internal affairs minister. Regardless of Avakov’s alliances,
his dismissal would be a foolish move for Poroshenko that would backfire in
dramatic ways. Instead, we believe the Poroshenko team has learned its lessons
from the attempted early dismissal of Zurab Alasania, who is a far less
influential figure yet nonetheless drew Western support for his reinstatement.
If he tries to fire Avakov, Poroshenko risks turning him into an international
cause celebre, but far bigger.

In the meantime, Avakov’s police will likely spend
the remaining weeks of the election campaign battling with the president’s
prosecutors and security service officers in cities throughout Ukraine.
Naturally, this lays the groundwork for a chaotic vote count after the first
round of elections on March 31. The key question remains of whether protests
emerge during this time, and who will be able to bring out a significant number
of serious protesters. At her Feb. 22 press conference, Tymoshenko warned of
the possibility of protests. But we don’t believe her campaign alone has the
ability to do this. Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s campaign won’t be protesting if he is
determined to have qualified for the second round runoff.