Balance of payments deficit widens to USD 7.3 bln in 1H09

The National Bank of Ukraine, in a release yesterday, said that Ukraine’s balance of payments deficit had risen from USD 6.6 bln in 5M09 to USD 7.3 bln in 1H09. The current account imbalance stood at USD 657 mln, while the capital account shortfall was USD 6.6 bln in 1H09. Ukraine’s exports declined 42.3% yoy, and imports dropped 49.8% yoy. Interestingly, exports of machinery jumped 16.9% mom, and chemicals 27.0% mom in June. Meanwhile, exports of metallurgy shed 5.5% mom. Andrii Parkhomenko: We reiterate our 2009 forecast for the balance of payments deficit at USD 8.0 bln – current account deficit at USD 0.2 bln, and capital account gap at USD 7.8 bln. Those numbers are based on the assumption that Ukraine will receive USD 7.2 bln in the IMF funds this year. We also expect Ukraine’s exports to lose 25.2% yoy, and imports to plunge 34.2% yoy.