Baltic states bolster forces against possible Russia offensive

The annual
large-scale NATO training exercises in the Baltic republics began on June 3
involving 18,000 soldiers from 19 countries, the dw.com news site reported.
NATO battalions participating in Saber Strike will be specially reviewed, while
infantry and air forces will practice their interaction, a U.S. general said.
Saber Strike was first held in 2010. Meanwhile, Estonia next year will begin
building the infrastructure and setting up monitoring equipment on its border
with Russia, said a statement on the parliament’s website. The effort will cost
EUR 188 mln until 2026.

The NATO alliance
could be ruptured in the event of a destructive war inflicted by Russia on its
neighboring countries, said Ukraine expert James Sherr of the London-based
Chatham House think tank in a column published on the dt.ua news site on June
1. NATO is not working actively enough to prepare for such a Russian offensive,
Sherr warned in the text titled, “New Risks of War.” Russia could employ the
same means and resources against NATO member-states as it did in Ukraine, he
said. “Any specialist of the General Staff (of the Armed Forces of Russia)
understands that the country’s limited economic potential excludes the
possibility of conducting a long war with NATO,” Sherr wrote. “But can a
victory in a lightning-fast, destructive war split NATO and force it to sit at
the negotiating table with Russia on its conditions? There are those who will
reply in the affirmative to this question, especially if to take into account
that the Minsk Accords were signed in February 2015, precisely after active
offensive operations of Russian armies in eastern Ukraine.”

Zenon Zawada: Indeed NATO and the Baltics are
preparing for a possible Russian military offensive, but as Sherr correctly
points out, they make be preparing inadequately. Russia has the advantage over
NATO in being able to make quick decisions without bureaucratic hurdles,
whereas NATO military decisions are hobbled by bureaucracy.

We believe Russia could use the 2019 elections in Ukraine as a pretext
to foment instability and chaos in its near abroad. The elections will be
fiercely contested, with no clear favorite at the moment and the high potential
for widespread fraud. If a contested vote draws a mass protest – or even worse,
an armed rebellion – Russia will have the narrative it needs to intervene militarily, perhaps not only in Ukraine. Though it’s hard to imagine what type of
narrative the Kremlin could draft to create the media pretext to strike at the
Baltics.