Belarus will not become part of Russia, Lukashenko reiterates

Belarus will not
become part of Russia, President Aleksandr Lukashenko said during a visit to a
factory on Jan. 24. “We can’t be a part of any other country. I can’t deceive
you and dissolve Belarus, even into brotherly Russia. In talks with the
(Russian) president, I told him clearly and definitively a year-and-half, two
years ago that no one can do this in Belarus. Even if I tried, the Belarusians
would remove me within a year of making such a decision,” he said.

Lukashenko
acknowledged “disagreement and conflict” with Russia in his remarks, which he
blamed on the latter initiating “tax maneuvers specially in order to pressure
Belarus,” referring to an 18% duty. As a result, Belarus would have to pay
Russia a higher price for oil than global levels. Every year, ahead of the new
year, Russia makes Belarus “stand on its knees and plead for these petroleum
products,” he said, identifying Norway as an alternative supplier and several
alternative transit routes. “We are not playing in some games. We don’t want to
excessively strain our main ally. This is truly our main ally. Maybe it will
sober up and return to normal relations.”

Zenon Zawada: We view Lukashenko’s statements as
noteworthy because we believe Putin will be considering a last ditch attempt to
recreate some version of the Soviet Union before his presidential term
concludes in 2024. The Russians will be applying enormous pressure in the
coming two years, but Lukashenko and Ukrainian President Zelensky are resisting
so far. Zelensky desperately needs to reach some kind of peace agreement, but
his commitment not to cross certain red lines is credible. At the same time, we
also expect some creative solutions to blur and sidestep these red lines.

Putin’s decision to promote Kozak on Jan. 24 indicates to us that Putin
won’t be attempting any radical measures in Belarus or Ukraine before the end
of his presidency, such as expanded military aggression. And Lukashenko’s
comments reiterate that some kind of Russia-Belarus supranational union is not
likely. With someone like Kozak, who oversaw the Olympics in Sochi, we see
Putin as seeking a more pragmatic approach to his near abroad. Moreover, Kozak
is reported to be leaning towards some kind of détente with the West.