Candidate Vilkul promises to end armed fighting in Donbas

The Opposition Bloc – Peace and Development Party
formally nominated Oleksandr Vilkul as its presidential candidate at its party
congress on Jan. 20. In his acceptance speech, Vilkul said he will halt the
armed fighting in Donbas in the first days of his presidency, and achieve a
stable peace within six to eight months. Vilkul is a close confidante to
oligarch Rinat Akhmetov, having built his career in his companies and serving
as honorary director of Metinvest Holding’s mining division. He served as
co-chair of the Opposition Bloc parliamentary faction until it split in November between
those loyal to Akhmetov and those loyal to oligarch Dmytro Firtash, which
became the Opposition Platform For Life Party.

Zenon Zawada: Ukraine’s
Russian-oriented forces can realistically field only one presidential
candidate. That person is former Opposition Bloc Head Yuriy Boyko, who has the
advantage over Vilkul of having been the visible spokesman for Ukraine’s
Russian-oriented forces for the last five years. Vilkul’s fellow party members
understand that he won’t be able to realistically compete in these elections.
Instead they are nominating him to prepare to compete in the October
parliamentary vote.

The Russian-oriented forces are likely to form the
next parliamentary opposition, not coalition. Both the parties of Boyko and
Vilkul are capable of qualifying for parliament. Both are Russian-oriented in
their rhetoric, but committed to Ukraine’s EU integration and averse to the
Russian Customs Union. Both its leaders have political and business ties to
President Petro Poroshenko. Therefore, it serves Poroshenko well to have not
only a split Russian-oriented opposition, but also one that is compromised and
not truly pro-Russian.

The Russian leadership understands that Ukraine’s
Russian-oriented forces are playing this game of using pro-Russian rhetoric but
not following through. Russian Dec. 25 expanded sanctions list was aimed to punish Vilkul and
his allies for splitting the Russian-oriented forces and reducing their ability
to influence policies in Ukraine. If Russia can’t get the solution it wants in
Ukraine by political means, it has demonstrated that it is capable of resorting
to military means.